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KBR Research Notes
Is Soju Sales Still Tied to the Economy? The 'Inverted Correlation' Revealed by Data
Soju and alcohol are no longer 'recession buffers,' shifting instead into items where consumption declines even amid economic stagnation. Over the past decade, total alcohol and soju shipments have structurally decreased regardless of economic cycles, showing a post-COVID brief rebound followed by a continued downturn. During the sluggish domestic demand period from 2023 to 2026, household alcohol expenditure, soju retail sales, and major corporate soju revenue simultaneously declined, demonstrating that the 'soju in a recession' formula no longer works. With shrinking drinking populations and frequencies, the spread of preference-driven alcohol consumption, and the subordination of soju demand to dining-out economies, soju is becoming a product tied to dining and cultural trends rather than an inferior or recession-proof good. As the domestic market structurally stagnates, the industry is focusing on low-proof and premium products and export expansion, reading soju sales no longer as an economic thermometer, but as a cultural indicator reflecting Korean drinking culture and the spread of K-content.
이태민 책임기자 · 07/10/2026
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KBR Research Notes
June 2026 CEO and Board Appointment Analysis: A Closed H1 Appointment Cycle and What Boards Chose
이태민 책임기자 · 07/04/2026
KBR Research Notes
Korean Factories Are Now Heading to the U.S.: Direct Investment Hits $10.1 Billion, Highest in 4 Years
이지영 기자 · 07/02/2026
KBR Research Notes
Samsung-SK's 800 Trillion Won Honam Bet Redraws South Korea's Industrial Map
이태민 책임기자 · 06/30/2026
KBR Research Notes
Are Salary Hikes Keeping Up with Inflation… The Widening Gap of 'Perceived Wages' in 2026
류현진 선임기자 · 06/22/2026
KBR Research Notes
Where Does South Korea's Humanoid Robot Technology Stand?
In the first half of 2026, South Korea's humanoid robot industry moved beyond exhibition demos into actual industrial site validation stages. Hyundai Motor Group showcased its fully electric Atlas at CES 2026 and presented a mass production roadmap aiming for phased deployment in U.S. plants starting in 2028. Multiple media outlets reported that Rainbow Robotics' mobile dual-arm robot RB-Y1, for which Samsung Electronics is the largest shareholder, has been deployed to Coupang logistics centers for pilot testing. Meanwhile, the government aims to invest over 1 trillion won through the K-Humanoid Alliance by 2030, targeting the development of a robot AI foundation model by 2028 and mass production of over 1,000 units annually by 2029. Strategies among major conglomerates also clearly diverge, with LG Electronics targeting a separate front in home-use humanoids. However, while hardware competitiveness is approaching global levels, AI software (physical AI) remains in a chasing phase behind the U.S. and China, leaving South Korea with the challenge of combining verified hardware with smarter brains and turning field tests into actual revenue.
최수진 기자 · 06/19/2026
KBR Research Notes
How Much Do We Spend on AI Subscriptions a Month? "One in Four Users Are Paid Subscribers"
One in four domestic generative AI users (24.3%) are paying for subscriptions, with those in their 20s recording the highest payment rate at 30.1% (Korea Consumer Agency's '2025 Consumption Life Index'). Based on KB Kookmin Card payment data, generative AI subscription customers surged by 413% and spending jumped by 516% over two years, driven primarily by text-based AI. In the U.S., the median monthly expenditure for paying households stands at $20, effectively becoming the 'base rate,' but spending is shifting upward as users in the upper $21–$40 bracket increased by 50% compared to 2024 (BofA). 'Multiple subscriptions' are on the rise, with users averaging 4 tools and spending $66 a month, and a clear 'lock-in' phenomenon is evident as the average retention period reaches 7 months. Across the broader subscription market, AI subscriptions increased by 8.4 percentage points year-on-year, ranking first in growth, while content memberships dropped by 5.7 percentage points, ranking first in decline, confirming a shift in the landscape that is squeezing out OTT services (OpenSurvey).
김민경 책임기자 · 06/15/2026
KBR Research Notes
100 Days of the Hormuz Blockade: Can South Korea's 200 Days of Strategic Reserves Hold Out, and When Will Oil Prices Stabilize?
South Korea's combined government and private oil reserves stand at 200 days (ranking 6th globally by IEA standards), successfully shielding the nation from short-term supply and demand shocks. However, government reserves fell to around 80 million barrels following a record release of 22.46 million barrels in March. International crude oil prices peaked at $119 per barrel for Brent crude on March 8 and have since declined to the $90 range as of June, but remain over 50% higher than pre-crisis levels ($50-$60 range). May consumer inflation rose 3.1% year-on-year, the highest in two years and two months, with petroleum products alone surging 24.2%. Experts predict it will take at least six months for the perceived stabilization of inflation even after oil prices settle. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley project Brent crude to settle at $90 by year-end based on a baseline scenario of resumed passage by late June, whereas RBC and IEA warn that cumulative supply losses could reach 1.5 billion barrels if the blockade is extended. This crisis has reconfirmed South Korea's structural vulnerability, with a 69% dependence on Middle Eastern crude and over 95% of it passing through Hormuz. Consequently, diversifying import sources and securing alternative shipping routes are more urgent tasks than ranking 6th in reserve days.
김민경 책임기자 · 06/11/2026
KBR Research Notes
One in Three Imported Cars is a Tesla: The 'EV Craze' Rocking the 2026 Auto Market
Domestic sales up 5.3% and eco-friendly vehicles account for 59% in Q1; Tesla takes the monthly top spot for four consecutive months, capturing 30% of import market share. Entering 2026 (Jan-May), South Korea's automobile market is showing a pattern of 'rapid internal realignment amid modest external growth.'
김민경 책임기자 · 06/09/2026
KBR Research Notes
"Searches Increased, But Clicks Disappeared": The 20-Year Traffic Economy Shaken by Zero-Click
As AI summaries provide answers on the first screen of search results, the 'zero-click' phenomenon is spreading, where even if search volume increases, clicks leading to website visits decrease. Analyses successively show that when Google AI Overviews are exposed, the click-through rates of top search results decline, shaking the traffic-based revenue structures of media outlets and content publishers. While traffic from AI searches such as ChatGPT, Gemini, and Perplexity is still small in scale, it is evaluated as high-involvement traffic with long dwell times and high conversion quality. In South Korea, Naver maintains its search market share, but user information-seeking behavior is shifting toward generative AI, prompting Naver to also pivot its strategy toward AI briefings. Ultimately, the core issue is how to provide financial compensation and rewards to the media companies and creators who produced the information when AI utilizes their content to generate answers.
이태민 책임기자 · 06/08/2026
