GLOBAL RADAR

Global Economy

The Fourfold Invoice of Low Birth Rates: Labor, Pensions, Domestic Demand, and Fiscal Health Shaken Simultaneously

As of 2026, about 80 countries worldwide have fallen below the replacement fertility rate of 2.1, with South Korea, China, and Japan forming the most severely affected group in East Asia. Low birth rates simultaneously present four types of costs: labor shortages, contraction of domestic consumption, structural deficits in pensions and health insurance, and fiscal pressure on the state. Japan walked this path 30 years earlier, where social security spending eroded national finances, and is now pivoting toward policies that adapt to population decline alongside encouraging childbirth. China entered the same path faster and on a larger scale after its population began declining in 2022, facing a more difficult adaptation process of aging before becoming rich. However, institutions like IIASA argue that the equation of low birth rates equating to economic crises is exaggerated, emphasizing education, productivity investment, and institutional reform. For businesses, this also represents an opportunity for new demand in areas such as automation, healthcare, and eldercare.