RESEARCH NOTES

September Corporate Business Sentiment Index (CBSI) Drops to 99.1: A Comprehensive Breakdown of the 4.3-Point Plunge in Manufacturing

The all-industry Corporate Business Sentiment Index (CBSI) for September 2026 stood at 99.1, declining by 0.5 points over three months following two consecutive months of increases. Within this modest overall decline, the manufacturing CBSI plummeted by 4.3 points from 103.8 to 99.5—marking its steepest drop in four years—while the non-manufacturing CBSI rose 2.2 points to 98.9, its highest level since September 2023. The manufacturing downturn was led by product inventories (-1.8p) and new orders (-1.0p), with all five component indices pulling the index downward. Small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises (SMEs) experienced a sharp drop of 5.4 points to 94.4, suffering a decline more than twice as severe as that of large enterprises (-2.5p). Conversely, the Economic Sentiment Index (ESI), which combines businesses and households, rose 0.5 points to 99.9, showing consumer sentiment improving ahead of corporate sentiment. The October manufacturing outlook CBSI remained above the baseline at 101.1, indicating that businesses view the September slump as a temporary shock driven by strikes and holidays. Key checkpoints for October performance are whether manufacturing recovers and whether the slump among SMEs persists.